The record · CFB
UTSA at Texas State: our pick
We called Texas State at 53%, locked Sep 12, 2:24 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: UTSA 31–26 Texas State. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 53% is the betting market's own price for Texas State: 7 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
The market closed where we called it.
We have no graded calls on Texas State yet.
At 53%, a pick like this still loses about 47 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
No cash-out alert fired on this game.
No graded calls on Texas State yet. Trends appear once their earlier games are final.
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State win chance | 53% | 53% |
| Texas State spread | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 66.5 | 66.5 |
- Pick locked: Texas State at 53%.
- Market closed with Texas State at 53%, where we called it.
- Kickoff.
- Final: UTSA 31–26 Texas State. Wrong.
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