Settled on real scores
Every call, graded
The model backed its most likely outcome at the market price, flat stakes, and every bet settled against the actual final score. Wins and losses both. This measures accuracy and variance — it is not an edge over the bookmaker.
World Cup 2026 · concluded
- Settled
- 79
- Record
- 60–19
- AccuracyHit rateThe share of calls that named the winner. Read it beside the Brier score rather than alone: a board that only ever calls heavy favourites will post a high hit rate while saying almost nothing, and one that takes real positions will post a lower one while being better informed.
- 76%
- Profit
- +182.49u
- ROIReturn on investmentProfit divided by everything staked, not by the number of bets. Backing ten calls at ten units each stakes 100 units, so a 12-unit profit is a 12% ROI. It is the figure that makes a long run of small stakes comparable with a short run of large ones.
- +23.10%
The finalSpain backed at 2.32 — Argentina 1–0 Spain. Called it.
| Fixture | Pick | Model | Price | Score | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina @ Spain | Spain | 41% | 2.32 | 1–0 | Won | +13.21 |
| England @ France | France | 53% | 1.81 | 4–6 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Argentina @ England | England | 36% | 2.69 | 1–2 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Spain @ France | France | 38% | 2.50 | 0–2 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Switzerland @ Argentina | Argentina | 56% | 1.71 | 3–1 | Won | +7.09 |
| England @ Norway | England | 51% | 1.87 | 1–2 | Won | +8.70 |
| Belgium @ Spain | Spain | 59% | 1.62 | 2–1 | Won | +6.22 |
| Morocco @ France | France | 59% | 1.60 | 2–0 | Won | +6.02 |
| Colombia @ Switzerland | Colombia | 42% | 2.26 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Egypt @ Argentina | Argentina | 71% | 1.34 | 3–2 | Won | +3.36 |
| Belgium @ USA | USA | 38% | 2.53 | 1–4 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Spain @ Portugal | Spain | 49% | 1.94 | 0–1 | Won | +9.41 |
| England @ Mexico | England | 38% | 2.51 | 2–3 | Won | +15.10 |
| Norway @ Brazil | Brazil | 53% | 1.79 | 1–2 | Lost | -10.00 |
| France @ Paraguay | France | 80% | 1.19 | 0–1 | Won | +1.94 |
| Morocco @ Canada | Morocco | 54% | 1.77 | 0–3 | Won | +7.74 |
| Ghana @ Colombia | Colombia | 66% | 1.43 | 1–0 | Won | +4.28 |
| Cape Verde Islands @ Argentina | Argentina | 83% | 1.14 | 3–2 | Won | +1.41 |
| Egypt @ Australia | Egypt | 40% | 2.37 | 1–1 | Won | +13.73 |
| Algeria @ Switzerland | Switzerland | 48% | 1.99 | 2–0 | Won | +9.88 |
| Croatia @ Portugal | Portugal | 56% | 1.69 | 2–1 | Won | +6.93 |
| Austria @ Spain | Spain | 74% | 1.28 | 3–0 | Won | +2.85 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina @ USA | USA | 70% | 1.36 | 2–0 | Won | +3.65 |
| Senegal @ Belgium | Belgium | 45% | 2.13 | 3–2 | Won | +11.28 |
| Congo DR @ England | England | 73% | 1.30 | 2–1 | Won | +3.01 |
| Ecuador @ Mexico | Mexico | 43% | 2.24 | 2–0 | Won | +12.39 |
| Sweden @ France | France | 75% | 1.27 | 3–0 | Won | +2.73 |
| Norway @ Ivory Coast | Norway | 45% | 2.14 | 1–2 | Won | +11.42 |
| Morocco @ Netherlands | Netherlands | 41% | 2.35 | 1–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Paraguay @ Germany | Germany | 71% | 1.35 | 1–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Japan @ Brazil | Brazil | 54% | 1.76 | 2–1 | Won | +7.63 |
| Canada @ South Africa | Canada | 54% | 1.76 | 0–1 | Won | +7.62 |
| Austria @ Algeria | Draw | 46% | 2.03 | 3–3 | Won | +10.31 |
| Argentina @ Jordan | Argentina | 84% | 1.13 | 1–3 | Won | +1.31 |
| Portugal @ Colombia | Portugal | 46% | 2.06 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Uzbekistan @ Congo DR | Congo DR | 55% | 1.72 | 3–1 | Won | +7.17 |
| Ghana @ Croatia | Croatia | 52% | 1.82 | 2–1 | Won | +8.23 |
| England @ Panama | England | 83% | 1.15 | 0–2 | Won | +1.51 |
| Iran @ Egypt | Egypt | 36% | 2.61 | 1–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Belgium @ New Zealand | Belgium | 80% | 1.19 | 1–5 | Won | +1.88 |
| Spain @ Uruguay | Spain | 56% | 1.69 | 0–1 | Won | +6.89 |
| Saudi Arabia @ Cape Verde Islands | Cape Verde Islands | 36% | 2.61 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Iraq @ Senegal | Senegal | 77% | 1.24 | 5–0 | Won | +2.39 |
| France @ Norway | France | 67% | 1.41 | 1–4 | Won | +4.08 |
| Mexico @ Czechia | Mexico | 52% | 1.82 | 0–3 | Won | +8.18 |
| South Korea @ South Africa | South Korea | 57% | 1.66 | 1–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Haiti @ Morocco | Morocco | 82% | 1.17 | 4–2 | Won | +1.70 |
| Brazil @ Scotland | Brazil | 73% | 1.30 | 0–3 | Won | +3.05 |
| Canada @ Switzerland | Switzerland | 38% | 2.49 | 2–1 | Won | +14.90 |
| Qatar @ Bosnia & Herzegovina | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 70% | 1.37 | 3–1 | Won | +3.70 |
| Congo DR @ Colombia | Colombia | 62% | 1.54 | 1–0 | Won | +5.36 |
| Croatia @ Panama | Croatia | 65% | 1.45 | 0–1 | Won | +4.50 |
| Ghana @ England | England | 80% | 1.20 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Uzbekistan @ Portugal | Portugal | 83% | 1.16 | 5–0 | Won | +1.56 |
| Algeria @ Jordan | Algeria | 63% | 1.51 | 1–2 | Won | +5.10 |
| Senegal @ Norway | Norway | 42% | 2.25 | 3–2 | Won | +12.50 |
| Iraq @ France | France | 88% | 1.08 | 3–0 | Won | +0.83 |
| Austria @ Argentina | Argentina | 65% | 1.47 | 2–0 | Won | +4.71 |
| Egypt @ New Zealand | Egypt | 60% | 1.60 | 1–3 | Won | +5.97 |
| Cape Verde Islands @ Uruguay | Uruguay | 67% | 1.42 | 2–2 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Iran @ Belgium | Belgium | 68% | 1.40 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Saudi Arabia @ Spain | Spain | 87% | 1.10 | 4–0 | Won | +0.97 |
| Japan @ Tunisia | Japan | 64% | 1.48 | 0–4 | Won | +4.82 |
| Curaçao @ Ecuador | Ecuador | 82% | 1.17 | 0–0 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Ivory Coast @ Germany | Germany | 65% | 1.47 | 2–1 | Won | +4.72 |
| Sweden @ Netherlands | Netherlands | 55% | 1.72 | 5–1 | Won | +7.18 |
| Paraguay @ Türkiye | Türkiye | 47% | 2.04 | 0–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Haiti @ Brazil | Brazil | 86% | 1.10 | 3–0 | Won | +1.01 |
| Morocco @ Scotland | Morocco | 56% | 1.69 | 0–1 | Won | +6.92 |
| Australia @ USA | USA | 58% | 1.65 | 2–0 | Won | +6.48 |
| South Korea @ Mexico | Mexico | 47% | 2.04 | 1–0 | Won | +10.36 |
| Qatar @ Canada | Canada | 73% | 1.31 | 6–0 | Won | +3.08 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina @ Switzerland | Switzerland | 61% | 1.56 | 4–1 | Won | +5.62 |
| South Africa @ Czechia | Czechia | 51% | 1.85 | 1–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Colombia @ Uzbekistan | Colombia | 68% | 1.39 | 1–3 | Won | +3.89 |
| Panama @ Ghana | Ghana | 41% | 2.31 | 1–0 | Won | +13.13 |
| Croatia @ England | England | 56% | 1.70 | 4–2 | Won | +7.03 |
| Congo DR @ Portugal | Portugal | 74% | 1.28 | 1–1 | Lost | -10.00 |
| Jordan @ Austria | Austria | 69% | 1.38 | 3–1 | Won | +3.85 |