The record · CFB
SMU at Louisville: our pick
We called Louisville at 52%, locked Sep 17, 11:44 PM ET, 39 hours before kickoff.
Final: SMU 31–41 Louisville. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 52% is the betting market's own price for Louisville: 7 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 0.1 points toward Louisville.
We have no graded calls on Louisville yet.
At 52%, a pick like this still loses about 48 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
No cash-out alert fired on this game.
No graded calls on Louisville yet. Trends appear once their earlier games are final.
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville win chance | 52% | 53% |
| Louisville spread | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 59.5 | 58.5 |
- Pick locked: Louisville at 52%.
- Market closed with Louisville at 53%, 0.1 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Final: SMU 31–41 Louisville. Right.
Fingerprint
ab717a21e168859958db836385fa0441dfffeb934ef2b958fee4487c3182d518