The record · NFL
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: our pick
We called the Houston Texans at 56%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 19 days before kickoff.
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20–6 Houston Texans. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 56% is the betting market's own price for the Houston Texans: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 0.8 points toward the Houston Texans, and the spread went from -2.5 to -3.5.
Our last 2 graded calls on the Houston Texans: 1 right.
At 56%, a pick like this still loses about 44 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
No cash-out alert fired on this game.
- Our calls right
- 50%
- Calls graded
- 1 of 2
- Houston Texans avg margin
- -4.0
Only 2 graded games on Houston Texans so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Houston Texans's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans win chance | 56% | 57% |
| Houston Texans spread | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 45.5 |
- Pick locked: the Houston Texans at 56%.
- Market closed with the Houston Texans at 57%, 0.8 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20–6 Houston Texans. Wrong.
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