The record · NFL
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: our pick
We called the Kansas City Chiefs at 77%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 26 days before kickoff.
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24–10 Miami Dolphins. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 77% is the betting market's own price for the Kansas City Chiefs: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 6.6 points toward the Kansas City Chiefs.
Our last 3 graded calls on the Kansas City Chiefs: 3 right.
At 77%, a pick like this still loses about 23 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Sep 27, 1:12 PM ET at Q1 12:54: Kansas City Chiefs 88% to win, called at 77%.
- Our calls right
- 100%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 3
- Kansas City Chiefs avg margin
- +7.7
Only 3 graded games on Kansas City Chiefs so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Kansas City Chiefs's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs win chance | 77% | 83% |
| Kansas City Chiefs spread | -7.5 | — |
| Total | 44.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Kansas City Chiefs at 77%.
- Market closed with the Kansas City Chiefs at 83%, 6.6 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 12:54: the Kansas City Chiefs 88% to win, called at 77%.
- Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24–10 Miami Dolphins. Right.
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