The record · NFL
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: our pick
We called the New Orleans Saints at 63%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 26 days before kickoff.
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 35–27 New Orleans Saints. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 63% is the betting market's own price for the New Orleans Saints: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.3 points away from the New Orleans Saints, and the spread went from -4 to -3.5.
Our last 4 graded calls on the New Orleans Saints: 1 right.
At 63%, a pick like this still loses about 37 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Sep 27, 6:27 PM ET at Q3 6:40: New Orleans Saints 76% to win, called at 63%.
- Our calls right
- 25%
- Calls graded
- 1 of 4
- New Orleans Saints avg margin
- -6.3
Only 4 graded games on New Orleans Saints so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: New Orleans Saints's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints win chance | 63% | 62% |
| New Orleans Saints spread | -4 | -3.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 43.5 |
- Pick locked: the New Orleans Saints at 63%.
- Market closed with the New Orleans Saints at 62%, 1.3 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 6:40: the New Orleans Saints 76% to win, called at 63%.
- Final: Las Vegas Raiders 35–27 New Orleans Saints. Wrong.
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