The record · NFL
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: our pick
We called the Indianapolis Colts at 51%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 33 days before kickoff.
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30–13 Washington Commanders. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 51% is the betting market's own price for the Indianapolis Colts: 9 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 14.3 points toward the Indianapolis Colts.
Our last 5 graded calls on the Indianapolis Colts: 2 right.
At 51%, a pick like this still loses about 49 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 4, 11:20 AM ET at Q3 14:09: Indianapolis Colts 67% to win, called at 51%.
- Our calls right
- 40%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 5
- Indianapolis Colts avg margin
- -11.2
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Indianapolis Colts's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts win chance | 51% | 65% |
| Indianapolis Colts spread | +1.5 | — |
| Total | 49.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Indianapolis Colts at 51%.
- Market closed with the Indianapolis Colts at 65%, 14.3 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 14:09: the Indianapolis Colts 67% to win, called at 51%.
- Final: Indianapolis Colts 30–13 Washington Commanders. Right.
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