The record · NFL
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: our pick
We called the Buffalo Bills at 61%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 33 days before kickoff.
Final: New England Patriots 29–26 Buffalo Bills. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 61% is the betting market's own price for the Buffalo Bills: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 11.4 points toward the Buffalo Bills, and the spread went from -4 to -13.5.
Our last 5 graded calls on the Buffalo Bills: 4 right.
At 61%, a pick like this still loses about 39 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 4, 2:51 PM ET at Q3 11:32: Buffalo Bills 70% to win, called at 61%.
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- Buffalo Bills avg margin
- +9.6
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Buffalo Bills's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills win chance | 61% | 73% |
| Buffalo Bills spread | -4 | -13.5 |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.5 |
- Pick locked: the Buffalo Bills at 61%.
- Market closed with the Buffalo Bills at 73%, 11.4 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 11:32: the Buffalo Bills 70% to win, called at 61%.
- Final: New England Patriots 29–26 Buffalo Bills. Wrong.
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