The record · NFL
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: our pick
We called the Houston Texans at 57%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 33 days before kickoff.
Final: Dallas Cowboys 34–30 Houston Texans. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 57% is the betting market's own price for the Houston Texans: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.2 points toward the Houston Texans, and the spread went from -2.5 to -3.5.
Our last 4 graded calls on the Houston Texans: 1 right.
At 57%, a pick like this still loses about 43 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 4, 1:13 PM ET at Q1 10:01: Houston Texans 76% to win, called at 57%.
- Our calls right
- 25%
- Calls graded
- 1 of 4
- Houston Texans avg margin
- -6.0
Only 4 graded games on Houston Texans so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Houston Texans's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans win chance | 57% | 58% |
| Houston Texans spread | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.5 |
- Pick locked: the Houston Texans at 57%.
- Market closed with the Houston Texans at 58%, 1.2 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 10:01: the Houston Texans 76% to win, called at 57%.
- Final: Dallas Cowboys 34–30 Houston Texans. Wrong.
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