The record · NFL
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: our pick
We called the San Francisco 49ers at 57%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 33 days before kickoff.
Final: Denver Broncos 14–24 San Francisco 49ers. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 57% is the betting market's own price for the San Francisco 49ers: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.8 points toward the San Francisco 49ers, and the spread went from -2.5 to -3.5.
Our last 3 graded calls on the San Francisco 49ers: 2 right.
At 57%, a pick like this still loses about 43 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 4, 6:38 PM ET at Q3 4:15: San Francisco 49ers 84% to win, called at 57%.
- Our calls right
- 67%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 3
- San Francisco 49ers avg margin
- +16.0
Only 3 graded games on San Francisco 49ers so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: San Francisco 49ers's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers win chance | 57% | 58% |
| San Francisco 49ers spread | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.5 |
- Pick locked: the San Francisco 49ers at 57%.
- Market closed with the San Francisco 49ers at 58%, 1.8 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 4:15: the San Francisco 49ers 84% to win, called at 57%.
- Final: Denver Broncos 14–24 San Francisco 49ers. Right.
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