The record · NFL
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars: our pick
We called the Philadelphia Eagles at 53%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 40 days before kickoff.
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17–19 Jacksonville Jaguars. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 53% is the betting market's own price for the Philadelphia Eagles: 9 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 28.8 points away from the Philadelphia Eagles, and the spread went from -1.5 to +5.5.
Our last 6 graded calls on the Philadelphia Eagles: 4 right.
At 53%, a pick like this still loses about 47 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 11, 12:05 PM ET at Q3 3:48: Philadelphia Eagles 72% to win, called at 53%.
Call 53% Alert 72% at Q3 3:48Last live read 100% (Q4 0:01)
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- Philadelphia Eagles avg margin
- -7.0
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Philadelphia Eagles's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles win chance | 53% | 24% |
| Philadelphia Eagles spread | -1.5 | +5.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 41.5 |
- Pick locked: the Philadelphia Eagles at 53%.
- Market closed with the Philadelphia Eagles at 24%, 28.8 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 3:48: the Philadelphia Eagles 72% to win, called at 53%.
- Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17–19 Jacksonville Jaguars. Wrong.
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