The record · NFL
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: our pick
We called the New England Patriots at 77%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 40 days before kickoff.
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17–45 New England Patriots. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 77% is the betting market's own price for the New England Patriots: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 14.9 points away from the New England Patriots, and the spread went from -8.5 to -3.5.
Our last 5 graded calls on the New England Patriots: 3 right.
At 77%, a pick like this still loses about 23 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 11, 1:19 PM ET at Q1 10:11: New England Patriots 88% to win, called at 77%.
Call 77% Alert 88% at Q1 10:11Last live read 100% (Q4 0:41)
- Our calls right
- 60%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 5
- New England Patriots avg margin
- -1.8
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: New England Patriots's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots win chance | 77% | 63% |
| New England Patriots spread | -8.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 45.5 |
- Pick locked: the New England Patriots at 77%.
- Market closed with the New England Patriots at 63%, 14.9 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 10:11: the New England Patriots 88% to win, called at 77%.
- Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17–45 New England Patriots. Right.
Fingerprint
462868b463b939c7a9d8040c0cc63c83b5cd3ed55b99740e16fbba234d036e63