The record · NFL
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: our pick
We called the Los Angeles Chargers at 57%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 40 days before kickoff.
Final: Denver Broncos 23–17 Los Angeles Chargers. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 57% is the betting market's own price for the Los Angeles Chargers: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 19.9 points away from the Los Angeles Chargers.
Our last 5 graded calls on the Los Angeles Chargers: 2 right.
At 57%, a pick like this still loses about 43 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 11, 6:28 PM ET at Q3 0:57: Los Angeles Chargers 86% to win, called at 57%.
Call 57% Alert 86% at Q3 0:57Last live read 3% (Q4 0:41)
- Our calls right
- 40%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 5
- Los Angeles Chargers avg margin
- -8.2
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Los Angeles Chargers's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers win chance | 57% | 37% |
| Los Angeles Chargers spread | -2.5 | — |
| Total | 44.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Los Angeles Chargers at 57%.
- Market closed with the Los Angeles Chargers at 37%, 19.9 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 0:57: the Los Angeles Chargers 86% to win, called at 57%.
- Final: Denver Broncos 23–17 Los Angeles Chargers. Wrong.
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