The record · NFL
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: our pick
We called the Detroit Lions at 76%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 40 days before kickoff.
Final: Detroit Lions 45–21 Arizona Cardinals. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 76% is the betting market's own price for the Detroit Lions: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 8.1 points away from the Detroit Lions.
Our last 5 graded calls on the Detroit Lions: 3 right.
At 76%, a pick like this still loses about 24 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 11, 5:36 PM ET at Q2 9:19: Detroit Lions 88% to win, called at 76%.
Call 76% Alert 88% at Q2 9:19Last live read 100% (Q4 0:21)
- Our calls right
- 60%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 5
- Detroit Lions avg margin
- +0.2
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Detroit Lions's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions win chance | 76% | 68% |
| Detroit Lions spread | -8 | — |
| Total | 48.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Detroit Lions at 76%.
- Market closed with the Detroit Lions at 68%, 8.1 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q2 9:19: the Detroit Lions 88% to win, called at 76%.
- Final: Detroit Lions 45–21 Arizona Cardinals. Right.
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