The record · NFL
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: our pick
We called the Houston Texans at 50%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 47 days before kickoff.
Final: Houston Texans 34–31 Jacksonville Jaguars. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 50% is the betting market's own price for the Houston Texans: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 8.0 points away from the Houston Texans, and the spread went from -1.5 to +1.5.
Our last 6 graded calls on the Houston Texans: 2 right.
At 50%, a pick like this still loses about 50 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 18, 12:02 PM ET at Q3 2:33: Houston Texans 66% to win, called at 50%.
Call 50% Alert 66% at Q3 2:33Last live read 50% (Q4 0:47)
- Our calls right
- 40%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 5
- Houston Texans avg margin
- -0.4
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Houston Texans's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans win chance | 50% | 43% |
| Houston Texans spread | -1.5 | +1.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 41.5 |
- Pick locked: the Houston Texans at 50%.
- Market closed with the Houston Texans at 43%, 8.0 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q3 2:33: the Houston Texans 66% to win, called at 50%.
- Final: Houston Texans 34–31 Jacksonville Jaguars. Right.
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