The record · NFL
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: our pick
We called the Chicago Bears at 60%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 47 days before kickoff.
Final: Chicago Bears 31–23 Atlanta Falcons. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 60% is the betting market's own price for the Chicago Bears: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 9.2 points away from the Chicago Bears, and the spread went from -3 to +1.5.
Our last 7 graded calls on the Chicago Bears: 4 right.
At 60%, a pick like this still loses about 40 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 18, 1:21 PM ET at Q1 7:38: Chicago Bears 78% to win, called at 60%.
Call 60% Alert 78% at Q1 7:38Last live read 95% (Q4 1:18)
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- Chicago Bears avg margin
- +4.6
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Chicago Bears's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears win chance | 60% | 51% |
| Chicago Bears spread | -3 | +1.5 |
| Total | 47 | 49.5 |
- Pick locked: the Chicago Bears at 60%.
- Market closed with the Chicago Bears at 51%, 9.2 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 7:38: the Chicago Bears 78% to win, called at 60%.
- Final: Chicago Bears 31–23 Atlanta Falcons. Right.
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