The record · NFL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: our pick
We called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 53%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 47 days before kickoff.
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 26–19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 53% is the betting market's own price for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 10.1 points away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Our last 7 graded calls on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3 right.
At 53%, a pick like this still loses about 47 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 18, 1:52 PM ET at Q2 14:52: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 82% to win, called at 53%.
Call 53% Alert 82% at Q2 14:52Last live read 5% (Q4 1:00)
- Our calls right
- 40%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers avg margin
- -2.4
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Tampa Bay Buccaneers's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win chance | 53% | 43% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 45.5 | 38.5 |
- Pick locked: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 53%.
- Market closed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 43%, 10.1 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q2 14:52: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 82% to win, called at 53%.
- Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 26–19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Wrong.
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