The record · NFL
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders: our pick
We called the Buffalo Bills at 72%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 47 days before kickoff.
Final: Buffalo Bills 33–30 Las Vegas Raiders. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 72% is the betting market's own price for the Buffalo Bills: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 3.7 points away from the Buffalo Bills.
Our last 7 graded calls on the Buffalo Bills: 4 right.
At 72%, a pick like this still loses about 28 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 18, 5:18 PM ET at Q2 7:13: Buffalo Bills 82% to win, called at 72%.
Call 72% Alert 82% at Q2 7:13Last live read 99% (Q4 1:43)
- Our calls right
- 60%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 5
- Buffalo Bills avg margin
- +4.6
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Buffalo Bills's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills win chance | 72% | 68% |
| Buffalo Bills spread | -6.5 | — |
| Total | 47.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Buffalo Bills at 72%.
- Market closed with the Buffalo Bills at 68%, 3.7 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q2 7:13: the Buffalo Bills 82% to win, called at 72%.
- Final: Buffalo Bills 33–30 Las Vegas Raiders. Right.
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