The record · NFL
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: our pick
We called the Chicago Bears at 52%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 51 days before kickoff.
Final: New England Patriots 24–30 Chicago Bears. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 52% is the betting market's own price for the Chicago Bears: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 7.5 points toward the Chicago Bears.
Our last 8 graded calls on the Chicago Bears: 5 right.
At 52%, a pick like this still loses about 48 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 22, 8:56 PM ET at Q1 0:56: Chicago Bears 82% to win, called at 52%.
Call 52% Alert 82% at Q1 0:56Last live read 98% (Q4 0:36)
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- Chicago Bears avg margin
- +1.8
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Chicago Bears's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears win chance | 52% | 60% |
| Chicago Bears spread | -1.5 | — |
| Total | 46.5 | — |
- Pick locked: the Chicago Bears at 52%.
- Market closed with the Chicago Bears at 60%, 7.5 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 0:56: the Chicago Bears 82% to win, called at 52%.
- Final: New England Patriots 24–30 Chicago Bears. Right.
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