The record · NFL
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: our pick
We called the San Francisco 49ers at 66%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 54 days before kickoff.
Final: San Francisco 49ers 20–29 Atlanta Falcons. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 66% is the betting market's own price for the San Francisco 49ers: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 8.8 points away from the San Francisco 49ers, and the spread went from -4.5 to -2.5.
Our last 6 graded calls on the San Francisco 49ers: 4 right.
At 66%, a pick like this still loses about 34 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 25, 1:17 PM ET at Q1 9:22: San Francisco 49ers 81% to win, called at 66%.
Call 66% Alert 81% at Q1 9:22Last live read 0% (Q4 0:58)
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- San Francisco 49ers avg margin
- +9.4
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: San Francisco 49ers's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers win chance | 66% | 57% |
| San Francisco 49ers spread | -4.5 | -2.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 49.5 |
- Pick locked: the San Francisco 49ers at 66%.
- Market closed with the San Francisco 49ers at 57%, 8.8 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 9:22: the San Francisco 49ers 81% to win, called at 66%.
- Final: San Francisco 49ers 20–29 Atlanta Falcons. Wrong.
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