The record · NFL
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals: our pick
We called the Denver Broncos at 74%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 54 days before kickoff.
Final: Denver Broncos 30–16 Arizona Cardinals. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 74% is the betting market's own price for the Denver Broncos: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 6.7 points away from the Denver Broncos, and the spread went from -7.5 to -3.5.
Our last 7 graded calls on the Denver Broncos: 4 right.
At 74%, a pick like this still loses about 26 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 25, 4:57 PM ET at Q1 0:45: Denver Broncos 86% to win, called at 74%.
Call 74% Alert 86% at Q1 0:45Last live read 99% (Q4 1:54)
- Our calls right
- 40%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 5
- Denver Broncos avg margin
- +2.0
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Denver Broncos's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos win chance | 74% | 68% |
| Denver Broncos spread | -7.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 |
- Pick locked: the Denver Broncos at 74%.
- Market closed with the Denver Broncos at 68%, 6.7 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 0:45: the Denver Broncos 86% to win, called at 74%.
- Final: Denver Broncos 30–16 Arizona Cardinals. Right.
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