The record · NBA

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks: our pick

We called the Dallas Mavericks at 76%, locked Nov 2, 6:00 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.

Final: Sacramento Kings 115–100 Dallas Mavericks. Wrong.

Why this pick?

Our 76% is the betting market's own price for the Dallas Mavericks: the DraftKings line, with its margin taken out. It is not a secret model.

Since we locked it the market moved 2.8 points away from the Dallas Mavericks, and the spread went from -8.5 to -7.5.

Our last 7 graded calls on the Dallas Mavericks: 2 right.

At 76%, a pick like this still loses about 24 times in 100.

What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.

Reading a pick: What does a 70% chance to win mean? Reading win probabilities · How to tell whether a sports picks record is real

Cash-out alert sent Nov 2, 8:58 PM ET at Q2 5:22: Dallas Mavericks 88% to win, called at 76%.

That was the moment to check the cash-out offer at your own sportsbook. Whether to take it was yours to decide; we never hold bets or money.

Dallas Mavericks win chance, call to final
50%

Call 76% Alert 88% at 5:22 - 2ndLast live read 1% (5.5 - 4th)

More on these teams

Dallas Mavericks

Sacramento Kings

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Entry #1233 in the chain. Check this call yourself →

Not betting advice. 21+ where permitted. Every call, graded →