The record · NBA
NBA picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every NBA pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 79
- NBA picks graded
- 53–26
- NBA picks · 67.1%
- Brier 0.195
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Each call is the DraftKings line with the margin removed, written down before tip-off. The record starts on the day the board went live — nothing before it was filled in afterwards.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 30 | 16–14 | 53.3% | 54.1% |
| 60–70% | 18small sample | 11–7 | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 70% or better | 31 | 26–5 | 83.9% | 78.8% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 79 | 53–26 | 67.1% | 66.1% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves | Minnesota Timberwolves | 71% | Oct 30, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Minnesota Timberwolves 127–101 | +4.11+3.50 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks | Houston Rockets | 69% | Oct 30, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Dallas Mavericks 116–111 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat | Miami Heat | 74% | Oct 30, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Miami Heat 145–125 | +3.51+2.93 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors | Toronto Raptors | 67% | Oct 30, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 30 | Orlando Magic 121–114 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers | New York Knicks | 59% | Oct 30, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 30 | Philadelphia 76ers 98–93 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics | Boston Celtics | 89% | Oct 30, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 30 | Boston Celtics 125–111 | +1.26+0.77 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets | Detroit Pistons | 74% | Oct 30, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 30 | Detroit Pistons 110–94 | +3.51+2.93 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards | Charlotte Hornets | 52% | Oct 30, 7:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Washington Wizards 95–79 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers | Portland Trail Blazers | 73% | Oct 29, 10:00 PMlocked Oct 29 | Memphis Grizzlies 124–103 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans | New Orleans Pelicans | 69% | Oct 29, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 29 | New Orleans Pelicans 132–120 | +4.57+3.94 at a book | ✓ Hit |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.