The record · College football
College football picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every college football pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 241
- College picks graded
- 169–72
- College picks · 70.1%
- Brier 0.193
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
The odds feed quotes a minority of the college slate, and a game it never quoted is one we never made a claim about. Those games are not counted either way — coverage shows which weeks were priced and which were not.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 67 | 39–28 | 58.2% | 55.2% |
| 60–70% | 53 | 31–22 | 58.5% | 65.5% |
| 70% or better | 155 | 129–26 | 83.2% | 83.4% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 163 | 111–52 | 68.1% | 72.4% |
| 6 to 24 hours | 14small sample | 10–4 | 71.4% | 76.0% |
| 1 to 3 days | 98 | 78–20 | 79.6% | 73.8% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic @ North Texas | North Texas | 84% | Oct 29, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 29 | North Texas 48–41 | +1.92+1.41 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Troy @ James Madison | James Madison | 94% | Oct 29, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 29 | Troy 24–21 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State | Jacksonville State | 60% | Oct 28, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 28 | Jacksonville State 24–0 | +6.77+6.05 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Sam Houston @ Missouri State | Missouri State | 66% | Oct 27, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 27 | Missouri State 24–3 | +5.05+4.40 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Houston @ Utah | Utah | 70% | Oct 24, 10:15 PMlocked Oct 24 | Utah 21–13 | +4.20+3.59 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| North Dakota State @ New Mexico | New Mexico | 65% | Oct 24, 10:00 PMlocked Oct 24 | New Mexico 21–16 | +5.31+4.65 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| UTSA @ Tulane | UTSA | 57% | Oct 24, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 24 | UTSA 42–19 | +7.49+6.74 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Utah State @ Texas State | Texas State | 84% | Oct 24, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 24 | Texas State 20–17 | +1.85+1.34 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Ole Miss @ Texas | Texas | 59% | Oct 24, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 24 | Texas 34–27 | +6.95+6.22 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Iowa State @ Arizona | Arizona | 78% | Oct 24, 7:30 PMlocked Oct 24 | Arizona 39–3 | +2.82+2.27 at a book | ✓ Hit |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.