The record · Soccer
Soccer picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every Soccer pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 211
- Soccer picks graded
- 118–93
- Soccer picks · 55.9%
- Brier 0.232
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Each call is the DraftKings line with the margin removed, written down before kick-off. The record starts on the day the board went live — nothing before it was filled in afterwards.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 110 | 51–59 | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 47 | 29–18 | 61.7% | 55.1% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 17–10 | 63.0% | 64.4% |
| 70% or better | 27 | 21–6 | 77.8% | 76.0% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 93 | 46–47 | 49.5% | 53.1% |
| 6 to 24 hours | 1small sample | 1–0 | 100.0% | 62.0% |
| More than 3 days | 117 | 71–46 | 60.7% | 52.1% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens @ Lille | Lille | 36% | Oct 30, 4:05 PMlocked Oct 30 | Lille 1–0 | +17.70+16.51 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Espanyol @ Villarreal | Villarreal | 71% | Oct 30, 4:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Espanyol 1–0 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Mainz @ SV Elversberg | Mainz | 48% | Oct 30, 3:30 PMlocked Oct 30 | SV Elversberg 4–1 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Paris Saint-Germain @ Le Havre AC | Paris Saint-Germain | 75% | Oct 30, 2:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Paris Saint-Germain 5–1 | +3.39+2.81 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Stade Rennais @ Nice | Nice | 38% | Oct 30, 2:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Nice 5–2 | +16.06+14.94 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Atalanta @ Fiorentina | Fiorentina | 42% | Oct 29, 3:45 PMlocked Oct 29 | Draw 2–2 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Lecce @ Frosinone | Frosinone | 57% | Oct 29, 1:30 PMlocked Oct 29 | Frosinone 5–1 | +7.43+6.68 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| San Diego FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps | Vancouver Whitecaps | 67% | Oct 28, 10:30 PMlocked Oct 28 | Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 | +4.95+4.30 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Colorado Rapids @ San Jose Earthquakes | San Jose Earthquakes | 41% | Oct 28, 10:30 PMlocked Oct 28 | Draw 2–2 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Houston Dynamo FC @ Seattle Sounders FC | Seattle Sounders FC | 57% | Oct 28, 10:30 PMlocked Oct 28 | Houston Dynamo FC 1–0 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.