The record · MLB
MLB picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every MLB pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 23
- MLB picks graded
- 13–10
- MLB picks · 56.5%
- Brier 0.244
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Each call is the DraftKings line with the margin removed, written down before first pitch. The record starts on the day the board went live — nothing before it was filled in afterwards.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 18small sample | 10–8 | 55.6% | 54.8% |
| 60–70% | 5small sample | 3–2 | 60.0% | 63.3% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 11small sample | 7–4 | 63.6% | 56.5% |
| 6 to 24 hours | 3small sample | 1–2 | 33.3% | 54.8% |
| 1 to 3 days | 9small sample | 5–4 | 55.6% | 57.4% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Milwaukee Brewers | 58% | Oct 28, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 28 | Milwaukee Brewers 4–1 | +7.34+6.59 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52% | Oct 24, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 24 | Milwaukee Brewers 5–4 | +9.07+8.25 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 64% | Oct 23, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 23 | Milwaukee Brewers 3–2 | +5.63+4.95 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55% | Oct 18, 5:00 PMlocked Oct 18 | Tampa Bay Rays 3–1 | +8.27+7.48 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 51% | Oct 17, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 17 | Tampa Bay Rays 7–3 | +9.77+8.92 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58% | Oct 15, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 15 | Milwaukee Brewers 6–4 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55% | Oct 13, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 13 | Tampa Bay Rays 3–1 | +8.06+7.28 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 60% | Oct 12, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 12 | Cleveland Guardians 7–3 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51% | Oct 11, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 11 | Milwaukee Brewers 2–1 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 61% | Oct 7, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 7 | Tampa Bay Rays 4–3 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.