The record · NFL
NFL picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every NFL pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 33 of 50
- cash-out alerts came in
- 65–42
- NFL regular-season picks · 60.7%
- Brier 0.237
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Preseason calls are counted separately, and thinly priced ones are broken out on their own. Why →
Cash-out alerts
An alert isn't a prediction that the pick will win. It says the pick is well ahead of where we called it, with time still on the clock. "Came in" means the pick went on to win.
Oct 29 · Q2 1:46
PACKERS 93%
Called 75% · up 10 on the Panthers
✓ Came in · Final Packers 27–19
Oct 26 · Q1 10:25
EAGLES 71%
Called 60% · up 4 on the Cowboys
✕ Didn't come in · Final Cowboys 38–21
Oct 25 · Q2 1:44
SEAHAWKS 89%
Called 60% · up 10 on the Chiefs
✓ Came in · Final Seahawks 20–3
Oct 25 · Q1 6:25
RAMS 88%
Called 75% · up 7 on the Raiders
✓ Came in · Final Rams 35–21
Oct 25 · Q1 0:45
BRONCOS 86%
Called 74% · up 6 on the Cardinals
✓ Came in · Final Broncos 30–16
Oct 25 · Q1 7:00
LIONS 76%
Called 57% · up 7 on the Packers
✓ Came in · Final Lions 20–17
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 47 | 26–21 | 55.3% | 55.4% |
| 60–70% | 32 | 19–13 | 59.4% | 64.0% |
| 70% or better | 28 | 20–8 | 71.4% | 76.3% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 3 days | 107 | 65–42 | 60.7% | 63.4% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 75% | Oct 29, 8:15 PMlocked Aug 31 | Green Bay Packers 27–19 | +3.38+2.80 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 60% | Oct 26, 8:15 PMlocked Aug 31 | Dallas Cowboys 38–21 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 60% | Oct 25, 8:20 PMlocked Aug 31 | Seattle Seahawks 20–3 | +6.59+5.87 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | 75% | Oct 25, 4:25 PMlocked Aug 31 | Los Angeles Rams 35–21 | +3.25+2.67 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 57% | Oct 25, 4:25 PMlocked Aug 31 | Detroit Lions 20–17 | +7.69+6.93 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos | 74% | Oct 25, 4:05 PMlocked Aug 31 | Denver Broncos 30–16 | +3.44+2.86 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | New York Jets | 57% | Oct 25, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Miami Dolphins 28–25 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 66% | Oct 25, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Atlanta Falcons 29–20 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | 57% | Oct 25, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Minnesota Vikings 16–10 | +7.53+6.77 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans | Tennessee Titans | 57% | Oct 25, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Cleveland Browns 27–24 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.